Why so many Russians support insane Putin’s war?
On insane beliefs in total nonsense and painful future awakening
Putin’s attack on Ukraine was non-provoked act of state terrorism what can’t be denied by any literate human. Official Russian claims about the urgent need to “de-Nazify” Ukraine, secret development of ethnic bioweapons together by Ukraine and US, other ridiculous statements are all obviously absurd; only “tin-foil hat” people may seriously discuss them. But why so many Russians, so proud of their great cultural heritage (Dostoevsky, Tolstoy, right?) are in support of this war? Media reports 86% support.
First of all let’s look at the numbers. Really, widely cited is the statement from Russian state-sponsored polling agency claiming 86% Russian supporting the war. This statement was repeated by probably all main international news outlets with little investigation of the polling report itself which came several days later. Report says something different – it was a phone poll, 46% supported the war, 40,6% could not express their opinion if they support or not. Pollsters knew what Russian state wants to hear (Putin’s “yes men” are everywhere in Russia) so these two numbers were just put together.
Making polls by the phone is a bad way of doing things in Russia. From the 1930-s until today Russians are in general reluctant to discuss serious issues on the phone – it’s widely believed that calls can be recorded and later “invitation” to police may follow. Today Russians are also bombarded by an incredible flow of scam calls claiming to be banks telling you about the dangerous activities on your accounts. These imminent dangers require to move your money immediately to a new “safe” account which number will be kindly provided. Sometimes scammers pretend to be police investigators so you have to also quickly sell your flat to a special “safe” colleague to avoid it being sold by, yes, scammers who are currently investigated. Thousands of Russians lost huge amount of money and property, even university professor and high-level bank employees It’s a separate issue why one may ever believe in such nonsense, another issue is important. Most of Russians are now aware about such unexpected calls, many or maybe even most of them will not answer or hang up when hear a “bank”. Russians will probably also refuse to speak to the pollster on the street but phone poll is defiantly non-representative at all – it’s questionable if one person from 5 or 10 will participate. So both 40% and 86% do not tell us at all if most of Russians are pro-war or just afraid to speak up.
But all of us here in Russia (yes, I’m still here) see so many friends, colleagues, social media accounts fully supporting the war. There are really a lot of those who say that the war is justified, Ukrainians destroy their cities themselves so do not believe the videos, etc. Most of these people are not known to eat infants alive so something really deep and strong forces them to stay on the evil side. Let’s find what it is!
When you say “Russians” you most probably think of the Russian people but do not go beyond the term to what it really means. Is it ethnicity, citizenship, culture and mentality? Well, Russia has up to 30% of Muslims – dwellers of predominantly Muslim regions of the country and recent labor immigrants or small traders from Middle Asia ex-USSR states like Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan. Besides Chechenians leaded by super-aggressive and dangerous Ahmad Kadyrov (you had to hear this name) Muslims in Russia do not seem to be actively interested in such international affairs. Young Russians do not look too much different from their counterparts from US or South Korea – active users of TikTok, online game players, lovers of smoothies and bubble-tea – and seem to be today mostly terrified by the war.
Vocal supporters of war are predominantly middle-aged and senior people who grew up in Soviet times. Too many of them are homo soveticus bearing the pain of empire gone away. Homo soveticus have something in common besides the memories of the glorious Soviet past.
Tolstoy or Dostoevsky, sorry, are not the main pillars of self-identity. Sure, Russians are proud of their great classic literature of 19th century but few reads these authors today. “We were first in the space” is a more important thing to be proud of, maybe it’s even a small column on which self-identity stands. But almost nobody had seen Soviet cosmonauts face-to-face or a space launch in-person – Baykonur space-launching site was super-secret as well as cosmonauts themselves. Most of them were former fighter pilots and only some became Soviet-era celebrities.
The main pillar of self-identity of modern Russian people is the victory over Nazism in, as it’s called for dozens of years, Great Patriotic War – war between Soviet Union and Germany - and a huge human sacrifice of the Soviet people. It’s always called the most important part of World War II, all other wars and battles are considered of negligible importance. Great Patriotic War is the main force gluing Soviet and now Russian people together.
Unfortunately, the majority of Russians only know this war in its false Stalinist-Soviet version. Western nations managed to better understand WWII and write its realistic history when pains settled a little in the 1960-s and documents were increasingly de-classified. Ideological nature of Soviet state obstructed this, even official war losses – 20 millions - were lies. During perestroika truthful number was made public and stays today on the web-site of Russian Ministry of Defense, it’s 27,5 millions.
Before WWII Soviet population was or had to be probably around 130 millions what we do not know for sure. Organizers of the last pre-war census were all executed by Stalin’s secret police as the obtained number was not good enough to hide victims of Stalin’s repressions. According to the modern official calculations more than 7 millions were killed or died in Soviet concentration labor camps. If we add another 2 to 3 millions of victims of the Great Hunger of early 1930-s (the majority of hunger victims were Ukrainians) we will be close to 40 millions. If population count is true, one in 4 people died and there was no singly family unaffected. But at least the quarter were victims of their own state not of invading one. The incompetence and cruelty of Soviet military commanders at least in the first half of the war is to be blamed for most of war losses.
So Soviet people found themselves between the hammer and the anvil of two cannibalistic regimes in power what was never widely discussed or understood by the Russian society. Even attempts to discuss were and still are treated as an insult to the “sacred memory of the dead heroes” – yes, after 77 years the pain is announced still fresh. The memories were not allowed to settle down and let way to deep rational analysis of why and what happened. Homo soveticus consumed and still consume this uncritically keeping that war as the only meaningful social glue. Repetitious, almost daily propaganda in Soviet times and propagandistic efforts during Putin’s years are the ultimate cause. The main celebration in the country is Victory Day May 9th when fame and glory are celebrated not painful and bitter losses. Many cars - especially highly-priced German luxury brands – each May bear signs “To the Berlin!”, “Trophy from Germany!” and especially “We can repeat!” Why your recent shopping trip to Europe is equaled with existential battle? Why 90 000 Euros you paid make your S-class vehicle a trophy? What are you personally going to repeat and with whom? These questions were paradoxically left unanswered clearly until February 24th 2022.
What Russia is doing in Ukraine in 2022 is the same what Nazi troops were doing in Ukraine in 1941, denying it becomes more and more difficult. But admitting it means to destruct this main pillar of self-identity of Soviet and now Russian people. Nothing else really unites Homo soveticus! Orthodox Christian religion in Russia in reality is mostly formal rituals with fasting season as a weight control time. Do not forget the Muslims for whom Christianity is alien. Patriotism is chauvinism here presenting other nations as existential enemies who want to eliminate Russians. This is a strong and effective propagandistic lie but lies do not constitute neither nations not their social glue.
So admitting this unbearable truth will be an existential loss of the main pillar of national self-identity and meaning of nation. It will be a loss of great glorious past but also of the present what makes the future meaningless. They've been told for years how much glory and proud one must bear about these heroic ancestors who smashed Nazism; now your country is acting in the same way. Who can admit this? So Russians in hordes are hiding behind these absurdist lies, avoid looking in the mirror and afraid to say themselves the unsayable…
Will awakening come? I will not pathetically say it’s inevitable. Yes, it’s really possible as other nations (more than one!) had come through this in the 20th century. Such awakening will be devastating - the depth of moral decline of Russia is unprecedented. National trauma of that scale may demand to wipe the old constituents of the nation (whatever politicians and ordinary Ivans may mean by this) and start from scratch. Such prospectives may be frightening for these middle-aged and senior homo soveticus who may strongly oppose any attempts to re-invent themselves. The real danger for Russia will be to follow Franko’s Spain or repeat forgotten story of 1970 bloody disintegration of the joint state of Pakistan into separate Pakistan and Bangladesh. Then the guilty will be left unpunished, genocide and atrocities will not become bitter national lessons but will be the seeds of future fears, hate, atrocities and wars.
After WWII there were many voices demanding to punish warmongers even more than it was done after WWI so they will never repeat. But clever thinking found another way – to rebuild the whole Western Europe in order not to let those susceptible to lies to become fertile ground for these lies again. Yes, there will be the new Marshall plan to rebuild Ukraine. And yes, blocked money of Russian state must be sent directly into it. But people in Russia will need their own mental Marshall plan to wipe old false beliefs and rebuild the minds in full. We all have to ensure that next putlers will never come to power and their poisonous seeds will never grow into future fears, hate, atrocities and wars.